← NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
Water GenbuTier 3
at NorCal Regional Santa Clara Hosted By Final Cut TCG Sponsored By TM32!
decks
2
(1.6% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
23
9-11-3
overall winrate
45.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
39.1%
avg ELO -4.1 per match
expected value
49.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1299
· median 1299
· range 1134–1465
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
1002
Q1 1194
Q3 1417
1648
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
50% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 52.5% | 8 | 4-3-1 | 56.2% | 54.2% | 46.6% | -1.6 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 11.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 8.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 6.6% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 40.7% | -8.9 |
| Fire Exia | 5.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suited | 5.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 32.9% | -27.3 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.9% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 22.9% | -26.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 4.9% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 4.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.4% | +3.9 |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.7% | -11.7 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Mage | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 2.5% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Byakko | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.2% | +13.1 |
| Water Allies | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Water Astra Ranger | 0.8% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.5% | +2.4 |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 0.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.4% | +18.3 |
| Water Tera Kongming | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Diana | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
